Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 32.594767 35.135966 37.890972 41.119807 44.826575 48.981444 54.037679
2025-04-27 29.377687 32.890169 36.952954 42.075941 48.478722 56.384649 67.172856
2025-05-04 27.249475 31.272097 36.130848 42.579798 51.162172 62.598068 79.800712
2025-05-11 25.351295 29.609462 34.915878 42.233435 52.458006 66.954849 90.693739
2025-05-18 23.746052 28.113685 33.691060 41.621695 53.158902 70.416425 100.954961
2025-05-25 22.344356 26.741579 32.468021 40.817944 53.384601 73.080296 110.508979
2025-06-01 21.165088 25.563468 31.388339 40.069568 53.535432 75.564271 120.405534
2025-06-08 20.030893 24.366727 30.184731 39.007698 53.032234 76.807696 128.188892
2025-06-15 19.709514 24.240967 30.446923 40.120038 56.115278 84.893771 154.027272
2025-06-22 19.044404 23.596581 29.917673 39.958027 57.028759 89.104975 172.782227
2025-06-29 18.298634 22.798193 29.111520 39.284726 56.957943 91.333119 187.426935
2025-07-06 17.493261 21.878092 28.074942 38.161327 55.953048 91.433383 195.923748
2025-07-13 17.295813 21.832485 28.357754 39.245962 59.204320 101.671186 246.243100
2025-07-20 17.048073 21.701509 28.503355 40.118619 62.205383 112.342955 312.828256
2025-07-27 16.721640 21.435714 28.419926 40.583998 64.466762 121.970466 392.896582
2025-08-03 16.243042 20.921010 27.915600 40.263813 65.057492 127.357736 462.248977
2025-08-10 15.744898 20.356088 27.301633 39.698016 65.049172 131.078067 531.721236
2025-08-17 15.241560 19.764359 26.616633 38.954006 64.561912 133.271096 598.055385
2025-08-24 14.779509 19.219079 25.982298 38.260615 64.110426 135.508950 677.197701
2025-08-31 14.284046 18.607252 25.215789 37.275695 62.894327 134.983041 726.752919
2025-09-07 14.218408 18.649607 25.515561 38.307397 66.486492 152.206811 1189.210592
2025-09-14 13.928122 18.333943 25.208765 38.157217 67.241791 159.650393 1629.120524
2025-09-21 13.564582 17.893020 24.675335 37.532770 66.753921 162.126398 2013.676716